The NBA Conference Finals are here and I have a preview of who I believe will win the series, the X-factor for each team and what each team will need to do to beat the other. Here we go!
Eastern Conference Finals
Miami Heat (5) Vs. Boston Celtics (3)
This is the first time in awhile that both the No. 1 seed and 2 seed will not be facing someone but granted we are in the NBA Bubble and things have been as unpredictable as ever each game and between each series but that being said this is an exceptionally interesting matchup.
Jimmy Butler and the Heat have been white hot winners of nine of their last 10 playoff games and just playing exceptional team ball: Goran Dragic has been exceptionally consistent, driving the ball and making timely shots, Jae Crowder had been shooting the lights out, Tyler Herro has been playing clutch and Bam Adebayo has been an anchor on the defensive front, this along with having one of the best coaches in the league in Eric Spoelstra.
Then there’s the Celtics who were left for dead after the Gordon Hayward injury and all they’ve done is beat Joel Embiid and the 76ers the defending champ Toronto Raptors and now are locked and loaded against the Miami Heat all thanks to one name: Marcus Smart. Largely erratic in the regular season, Smart has been aggressive, clutch and savvy on both ends. He is unquestionably Boston’s best defender and one of the best in the league but now has been shooting tremendously beyond the arc and just makes winning plays, passing, rebounding and taking charges. Smart, along with the dynamic duo of wings Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown and progressive coaching of Brad Stevens they can compete with any one and any team every night.
The Heat X-Factor unquestionably is: It’s tough when your team has only lost one game but I have to lean towards guard Goran Dragic. The “Dragon,” is the engine to the ferrari that is the Heat controlling the tempo, ball movement and offensive flow. Dragic has eclipsed 20+ points in seven of 10 Miami playoff games and for the Heat to stay hot he will need to defend Kemba Walker at a high rate while scoring efficiently for the Heat to reach the Finals for the first time since 2014.
The Celtics X-Factor has got to be: point guard Kemba Walker. Granted, Walker’s knee injury has somewhat compromised his defensive premise but really Boston needs him for his scoring which he must do at a high, consistent clip. In wins, Walker is averaging 36% shooting (which isn’t great at all) in their eight wins. In the C’s four losses, Walker is shooting 25%. Walker will need to play with pace, getting penetration in the lane and shooting at a way higher clip for Boston to advance to the finals for the first time in a decade.
Final Verdict: It’s hard to pick against the Heat given how unbelievably tough and consistent they have been but I’m going to do it: I have the Boston Celtics thanks to exceptional play by Jason Tatum and huge step-up performances by Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart for the C’s to reach the Finals for the first time since 2010.
Celtics in Seven.
Western Conference Finals
Los Angeles Lakers (1) Vs. Denver Nuggets (3)
The Denver Nuggets made NBA history overcoming back-to-back 3-1 deficits to make it to their first Conference Finals since 2009 (shout out to the Melo-Nuggets days). Their latest series victory was making one of the biggest upsets in recent memory dethroning the front-running Los Angeles Clippers, who were heavily favored to win it all. They did this largely due to the exceptional play of Nikola Jokic, shooting of Jamal Murray and coaching of Michael Malone. The Nuggets have one of the best benches in the league with Monte Morris, Miles Plumlee, Torrey Craig and Michael Porter Jr. coming in and all have shown the ability to make tough shots and play with exceptional poise overcoming multiple 15+ point deficits in games. Denver looks like a team of destiny and the Lakers need to be on high alert despite owning all six games the two have played.
As for the Lakers, they finally broke through their dark years in large part to a primed Lebron James, Anthony Davis and “playoff,” Rajon Rondo. In his 17th season, the future Hall-of-Famer as looked exceptional in the playoffs averaging a triple double (27-10-10) in the first round against the Trailblazers and followed that up with averaging a double double (26-10) against the Houston Rockets in the Semifinals as Los Angeles ran James Harden and the Crew out the gym. As for Anthony Davis, the former Kentucky star has been shooting a blistering 59% from the field 27-points, 10-rebounds and four-assists over the two playoff series, he has had a few duds offensively but defensively he looks like the (supposed to be) defensive player-of-the-year. Everyone knows “playoff,” Rondo is on the short list of players that average a higher total in points, rebounds and assists in the playoffs but more so than anything he finally gives the Lakers a true ball handler and that frees up Lebron to play his game from the four spot dominantly. LA will need KCP, Alex Caruso and Kyle Kuzma to make shots beyond the arc while Javale McGee and Dwight Howard will need to play with energy but given the fact that the Lakers were 6-0 against the Nuggets in the regular season and have Lebron getting better as the playoffs get deeper it will be a tough task for any to dethrone the King on his quest for a fourth Crown.
The Nuggets X-Factor is undoubtedly: Michael Porter Jr. It’s wild to think that a 22-year-old could hold the keys to the Nuggets first final appearance ever but here we are. The former Mizzou product could give you 18 and 10 but also in the same series give you two points. Similar to Kuzma, MJ doesn’t need to average 20 but he needs to shoot well and average about 15-points and eight boards consistently for the Nuggets to keep distance with the Lakers each game and with a chance, Denver has won all their series thus far.
The Lakers X-Factor is and always has been: Kyle Kuzma. The former Utah Ute is one of the most inconsistent bench players; there are some games averaging 17 or 18 and some averaging four so you truly don’t know what you could expect. In two series he has averaged about 11 points off 45% shooting so I wouldn’t say he necessarily needs to average 20 (like some would) but I believe if the third-year Pro can average in double figures off the bench, shooting efficiently and giving defensive effort, this Lakers squad will be hard to beat.
Final Verdict: It’s once again, really hard for me to choose against the Nuggets since they are playing so damn well but Lebron James the Lakers look on a mission and have since they entered the Bubble; it would take the 2015 Golden State Warriors to detrone Los Angeles and their quest for a fourth championship for the King. That being said, I respect the heck out of the Nuggets and think Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic will take them to game seven before Anthony Davis, Rajon Rondo, Kyle Kuzma and Lebron James will prove just a hair better.
Lakers in Seven.
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