The NFL Draft is coming up here on April 23rd and I want to make the case for and the case against drafting each of these quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow, Quarterback, LSU
The Case For: Burrow had one of the best collegiate seasons any Quarterback could ever have of this decade throwing for 5,671 (76% accuracy) with 60 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions under coordinator Joe Brady. The football IQ, intangibles, field presence, ability to make explosive plays outside of the pocket and timing/anticipation are all huge strengths making it hard to pass up on Burrow with the top pick.
The Case Against: The one-hit wonder. Burrow only completed 58% of his passes for just 16 touchdowns and 2,894 yards the season before making the scheme, offensive coordinator, weapons, and of course, coach/culture being exceptionally well to get the most out of Burrow. He doesn’t have the strongest of arms and can struggle against exotic blitzes.
Final Prediction: The Bengals have to draft him but have historically had a reputation of not spending a lot during the off-season, haven’t necessarily had the best coaching/ownership history or necessarily drafted well but every franchise can have a silver lining and Burrow made be the first in a foundation being built.
Tua Tagovailoa, Quarterback, Alabama
The Case For: Tua T is the newage quarterback: a dual threat, mobile, improvisational, exceptional footwork and straight deadly accurate both in and out out the pocket. A career 69% passer, Tua’s resume speaks for itself passing for 3,966 yards (43 touchdowns to only 6 picks) in 2018 and then prior to his injury passing for 2,840 yards (33 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions) this season. To me, he is the real deal (30 wins in 32 starts) and has all the necessary tools to be a franchise quarterback IF he can stay healthy.
The Case Against: Normally health would be the biggest question mark but to me, the lack of production in the biggest games Tua played is more alarming for me. Outside of the Georgia game, Tua has struggled against top competition completing a career 56% accuracy against Bama’s biggest rival LSU, 40% against Georgia and 64% against Clemson during the Title Game rout. Then there’s health: Tua hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season since high school, with particularly him sustaining two ankle surgeries, hip surgery, a broken nose and a concussion as a starter in college.
Final Prediction: This will be the biggest gamble in the draft by a country mile but I think the Dolphins or Chargers have to pick him and IF he can stay healthy I think he has the intangibles and accuracy of a franchise quarterback.
Justin Herbert, Quarterback, Oregon
The Case For: One of the smartest minds in the draft, Herbert had a season to remember throwing for 3,471 yards, 32 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions en route to a Rose Bowl victory. At 6-6, 237 pounds he possesses the size, strength and ideal frame for the pros. He has a rocket arm, great eyes and is cool, calm and collected in the pocket. Herbert also is great at reading pre-snap coverages as well as reading on-the-field progressions.
The Case Against: He just doesn’t have the “it,” factor. Whether it's the quiet demeanor or robotic/mechanical way he plays, Herbert just is lacking on the franchise quarterback intangibles a bit. Herbert is an inconsistent passer on all three levels connecting on a 40-yarder in the pocket seam route then missing on a simple screenplay the next which is concerning too.
Final Prediction: Where Herbert is drafted will be instrumental in his development or lack thereof. The former Oregon Duck needs to be drafted by an already leader-full team with a patience but intuitive coaching staff that can work through Herbert's weaknesses to get the most out of him each and every down, a team like the Chargers makes a lot of sense here.
Jordan Love, Quarterback, Utah State
The Case For: Thanks to Patrick Mahomes, NFL scouts and analysts have taken a liking to Mr. Love. At 6-4, 225lbs, he has an NFL-ready body, arm strength, is athletic and has nice field vision. That was on full display in 2018, where he passed for 3,567 yards with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. Love also can throw side-arm, over-the-shoulder, quick and anything in between.
The Case Against: He looks like a project; he was a career 61% passer at Nevada, has had six games with multiple interceptions, shaky footwork, below-average decision-making and had an NCAA-high 17 interceptions in 2019.
Final Prediction: Whomever drafts him (looks to be the Raiders, Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, Steelers etc.) is taking him with the understanding he will be a project. Love will fit a system with a great Coach-OC-QB relationship where he can learn under a total pro, say a Big Ben, Phillip Rivers, etc.) to hopefully evolve into a franchise-leading quarterback once his fundamentals are mastered.
Jalen Hurts, Quarterback, Alabama/Oklahoma
The Case For: I, unbiased love this kid. He is, to me, the best overall leader, has off-the-chart intangibles and just an unmatched will to win each game. Hurts proved he can be a passer under Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma passing for 3,851 yards, 32 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions completing 70% of them. Hurts has incredible upper body strength and torque rushing for 3,274 career yards (1,298 yards last season) and 43 touchdowns. He is a pure winner going 38-4 as a starter and has an ability to adapt to different schemes as he did with the Crimson Tide and Sooners.
The Case Against: Hurts only had a single season in which he eclipsed 3,000 yards passing in a pass-happy offense at Oklahoma. He also wasn’t much of a pocket-passer choosing to leave the pocket as opposed to scan and climb it. Hurts struggles to throw the ball deep and could use improvement refining his throwing mechanics.
Final Prediction: I think Hurts will be the steal of the draft for one lucky NFL team. If a team like the Bears, Colts, Redskins, Patriots, Jets, etc. acquire him. He has all the necessary intangibles and skills to be a franchise quarterback. He just needs a team, coach and system that can fully unlock his skill set.
Jacob Eason, Quarterback, Washington
The Case For: Eason, back in his home state, excelled for the Huskies throwing for 3,132 yards with 23 touchdowns, just 8 interceptions and completed 64% of his passes. At 6’6’, 231lbs, Eason fits the NFL mold and has a rocket arm.
The Case Against: Eason has a lack of experience, accuracy issues (career 59% passer), lack of mobility/pocket poise and is below average against pressure/blitzes.
Final Prediction: While I don’t necessarily see a franchise quarterback, I see a valuable backup for any team that needs a safety valve say the Bucs, Falcons, Packers or Broncos.
Jake Fromm, Quarterback, Georgia
The Case For: Fromm was a proven winner going 36-7 as a starter for the Bulldogs in his three years. He’s thrown for 78 touchdowns to just 18 interceptions completing 63% of his passing during his three years. He is careful with the football, has agile footwork and is a solid leader with nice intangibles in a locker room.
The Case Against: Unfortunately, he has below average arm strength, lacks premium physical tools and poor mobility in/out of the pocket. Not once did he ever surpass 3,000 yards passing despite having a consistently incredible running game and NFL-ready offensive lineman each season as well as only surpassing 30 touchdowns once in three seasons.
Final Prediction: Fromm is again similar to Eason, a backup at best, think of like Colt McCoy for a team like the Texans, Titans, Rams or a team like that.
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